What will global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels mean for semi-arid regions?
The Paris climate agreement ambition to keep global warming below 1.5°C recognises that even this level of warming could present extremely serious adaptation challenges for the world’s most vulnerable regions. Among these are the semi-arid regions of Africa and India which already experience harsh climates, and where climatic conditions are expected to intensify over the course of the coming decades. Hundreds of millions of people live in these areas, and these changing climates could amplify their vulnerability and compromise their livelihoods and wellbeing.
To determine how semi-arid regions might be affected by different global warming scenarios, ASSAR researchers used data from the CMIP5 multi-model archive to analyse projected temperature and rainfall changes in Africa and India at 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels. This brief summarises the key messages emerging from this research.
